How El Niño will affect weather in Central Texas this winter

Automatically translated from Spanish. Read the original in Spanish

Meteorologist James Greenhaw, known on social media as the “Pflugerville Weather Guy,” has shared his perspectives on how the El Niño phenomenon will impact the weather in Central Texas over the coming months. According to data provided by NOAA, there is an 83 percent probability that this climate event will become the most intense on record to date. El Niño is a natural pattern that consists of the warming of Pacific waters west of Central America. Greenhaw explains that this phenomenon began to be identified and studied in the mid-1900s. The process occurs when the warming of the waters generates winds that move across the Pacific Ocean from west to east, allowing warmer air currents to expand toward Mexico, Central America, and North America. Regarding Central Texas, the expert clarifies that there is some confusion among the population. Although El Niño is commonly associated with constant rain and extreme cold, the reality is more complex. While average precipitation is usually slightly higher than usual, this does not necessarily guarantee that flooding will occur. The phenomenon tends to bring more humidity toward the United States, which overcomes the mountains of Mexico and generates disturbances that increase the chances of rain. Regarding temperatures, Greenhaw points out that the main effect does not come from a greater number of cold fronts, but from additional cloud cover. This cloud layer usually keeps afternoon high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. The meteorologist specifies that, although temperatures are lower, this does not imply that arctic fronts are more intense. When cold fronts occur, which are usually about three or four per year, there is a possibility of experiencing ice storms, snow, or any type of frozen precipitation. According to Greenhaw’s observations, in a year under the influence of El Niño, it is more likely that freezing rain or icy drizzle will occur if the temperature drops below the freezing point. Although Central Texas has been under the influence of a strong El Niño since late spring, this phenomenon had no impact during the summer, a period in which the region remained mostly dry. The real effects on local weather usually begin to manifest between late fall and early winter, specifically from November until the arrival of spring. Initial forecasts suggest that the phenomenon could dissipate by late spring, giving way to a neutral phase or even a La Niña event toward next summer. Therefore, the period between December and the months of March or April represents the window of highest probability for observing an increase in precipitation in the area. Finally, Greenhaw warned about the state of local reservoirs. Due to the rains recorded in July, most of the lake levels in the area are currently quite full. This creates concern, as if a flooding event were to occur, the lakes would have little storage capacity. In that scenario, authorities would be forced to release water, which could lead to flooding in areas located downstream.